Berenguer / Grall / Guedes Soares Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management

ESREL 2011
Erscheinungsjahr 2011
ISBN: 978-0-203-13510-5
Verlag: Taylor & Francis
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 536 Seiten

Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management contains the papers presented at the 20th European Safety and Reliability (ESREL 2011) annual conference in Troyes, France, in September 2011. The books covers a wide range of topics, including: Accident and Incident Investigation; Bayesian methods; Crisis and Emergency Management; Decision Making under Risk; Dynamic Reliability; Fault Diagnosis, Prognosis and System Health Management; Fault Tolerant Control and Systems; Human Factors and Human Reliability; Maintenance Modelling and Optimisation; Mathematical Methods in Reliability and Safety; Occupational Safety; Quantitative Risk Assessment; Reliability and Safety Data Collection and Analysis; Risk and Hazard Analysis; Risk Governance; Risk Management; Safety Culture and Risk Perception; Structural Reliability and Design Codes; System Reliability Analysis; Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis.

Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management will be of interest to academics and professionals working in a wide range of scientific, industrial and governmental sectors, including: Aeronautics and Aerospace; Chemical and Process Industry; Civil Engineering; Critical Infrastructures; Energy; Information Technology and Telecommunications; Land Transportation; Manufacturing; Maritime Transportation; Mechanical Engineering; Natural Hazards; Nuclear Industry; Offshore Industry; Policy Making and Public Planning.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Berenguer, Christophe

Grall, Antoine

Guedes Soares, Carlos

Fachgebiete

• Technische Wissenschaften Technik Allgemein Technische Zuverlässigkeit, Sicherheitstechnik
• Technische Wissenschaften Maschinenbau | Werkstoffkunde Produktionstechnik Zuverlässigkeitstechnik
• Interdisziplinäres Wissenschaften Wissenschaften: Forschung und Information Risikobewertung, Risikotheorie
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Betriebswirtschaft Management Risikomanagement
• Technische Wissenschaften Maschinenbau | Werkstoffkunde Produktionstechnik Industrielle Qualitätskontrolle

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Thematic areas

Accident and incident investigation

A preliminary analysis of the ‘News Divine’ incident
S. Olmos-Peña & J.R. Santos-Reyes

Case study: Do activities and outcomes of the process safety observations match?
M. Gerbec

Definition of an algorithm for accident identification
M. Nombela & E. Boix

Feasibility of railway suicide prevention strategies: A focus group study
H. Rådbo, B. Renck & R. Andersson

Major accidents and their consequences for risk regulation
I.B. Dahle, G. Dybvig, G. Ersdal, T. Guldbrandsen, B.A. Hanson, J.E. Tharaldsen & A.S. Wiig

Prevention of atypical accident scenarios through the use of resilience based early warning indicators
N. Paltrinieri, V. Cozzani, K. Øien & T.O. Grøtan

Suicide and the potential for suicide prevention on the Swedish rail network: A qualitative multiple case study
H. Rådbo, I. Svedung & R. Andersson

Bayesian methods

An AHP-based approach of risk analysis in Bayesian belief networks
B. Xie & J. Vatn

An optimizational resource allocation method for series system reliability life test
Q. Liu, X. Wu & J. Ding

Assessing risk based on Bayesian networks and FMECA: A case study
L.M. Pedersen & M.H. Saltnes

Bayesian network for decision making on ageing facilities
P.A.P. Ramírez & I.B. Utne

Comparison of fault tree and Bayesian Networks for modeling safety critical components in railway systems
Q. Mahboob & D. Straub

Establishing prior probability distributions for probabilities that pairs of software components fail simultaneously
M. Kristiansen, R. Winther & B. Natvig

Parameter estimation in a reservoir engineering application
A.M. Hanea & M. Gheorghe

Reliability based design of engineering systems with monotonic models
M. Rajabalinejad & C. Spitas

Towards a Bayesian Network methodology to improve maintenance of complex semiconductor systems
M.F. Bouaziz, E. Zamaï, S. Monot, F. Duvivier & S. Hubac

Work time loss prediction by exploiting occupational accident data
E.C. Marcoulaki, I.A. Papazoglou & M. Konstandinidou

Crisis and emergency management

Functional safety requirements for active protection systems from individual and collective risk criteria
J.E. Kaufman & I. Ha¨ring

How the use of modelled scenarios can improve risk awareness and risk control in complex environments
J.M. Hagen, B.O. Knutsen, T. Sandrup & M. Bjørnenak

Interdependency-based approach of complex events in critical infrastructure under crisis: A first step toward a global framework
B. Birregah, A. Muller & E. Châtelet

Learning decision making: Some ideas on how novices better can learn from skilled response personnel
M. Sommer

Performance evaluation of organizational crisis cell: Methodological proposal at communal level
D. Lachtar & E. Garbolino

Quantitative approach of organizational resilience for a Dutch emergency response safety region
J.M.P. van Trijp, M. Ulieru & P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder

Security incidents and subsequent adaptations of disaster response in complex humanitarian emergencies
B.I. Kruke

Decision making under risk

A guidance for implementing decision-aiding in risk management
F. Beaudouin & M. Merad

Dealing with uncertainties in long term investment planning of electricity distribution systems with distributed generation
M.D. Catrinu, M. Istad & D.E. Nordgård

Forming risk clusters in projects to improve coordination between risk owners
F. Marle & L.A. Vidal

On the use of value of information measure in decision making—A drilling jar case
J.T. Selvik, H.P. Lohne & T. Aven

Performance-based fire safety—risk associated with different designs
H. Bjelland & O. Njå

Sequential optimization of oil production under uncertainty
A.B. Huseby & N. Moratchevski

Shared collaboration surfaces used to support adequate team decision processes in an integrated operations setting
M. Kaarstad & G. Rindahl

Visualization and verification of dependable work processes for stakeholder-driven organizations
A.P.-J. Thunem & H.P.-J. Thunem

Dynamic reliability

A comparison of scenario binning methods for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment
K. Metzroth, D. Mandelli, A. Yilmaz, R. Denning & T. Aldemir

A dynamic Level 2 PRA using ADAPT-MELCOR
D.M. Osborn, D. Mandelli, K. Metzroth, T. Aldemir, R. Denning & U. Catalyurek

A probabilistic model for online scenario labeling in dynamic event tree generation
D. Zamalieva, A. Yilmaz & T. Aldemir

Application of the dynamic hazop to an air separation distillation column
J.S.G.C. Matos, P.F. Frutuoso e Melo & M. Nele

Capability of the MCDET method in the field of dynamic PSA
M. Kloos

Development of a simulator independent cognitive human reliability model for nuclear accident conditions
R. Sundaramurthi & C. Smidts

Dynamic reliability and uncertainty analysis of severe accident with randomly delayed events
R. Alzbutas & P.E. Labeau

Lazy forward-chaining methods for probabilistic model-checking
F. Teichteil-Königsbuch, G. Infantes & C. Seguin

Reliability assessment for complex systems operating in dynamic environment
G. Babykina, N. Brinzei, J.-F. Aubry & G.A. Pérez Castañeda

Using dynamic Bayesian networks to solve a dynamic reliability problem
P. Broy, H. Chraibi & R. Donat

Fault diagnosis, prognosis and system health management

A comparison of distribution estimators used to determine a degradation decision threshold for very low first order error
O. Hmad, A. Mathevet, P. Beauseroy, E. Grall-Maës & J.R. Masse

A first step toward a model driven diagnosis algorithm design methodology
J.-M. Flaus, O. Adrot & Q.D. Ngo

A generic adaptive prognostic function for heterogeneous multi-component systems: Application to helicopters
P. Ribot & E. Bensana

Advanced text mining algorithms for aerospace anomaly identification
Z. Bluvband & S. Porotsky

ANN based Bayesian hierarchical model for crack detection and localization over helicopter fuselage panels
C. Sbarufatti, A. Manes & M. Giglio

Contribution to specific determination of system state and condition
D. Valis & L. Zak

Decision support with a markovian approach for maintenance context activities
P. Vrignat, M. Avila, F. Duculty, B. Robles & F. Kratz

Diagnostic of discrete event systems using timed automata in MATLAB SIMULINK
Z. Simeu-Abazi, E. Gascard & F. Chalagiraud

Differential evolution for optimal grouping of condition monitoring signals of nuclear components
P. Baraldi, E. Zio, F. Di Maio, L. Pappaglione, R. Chevalier & R. Seraoui

Ensemble of unsupervised fuzzy C-Means classifiers for clustering health status of oil sand pumps
F. Di Maio, E. Zio, M. Pecht, P. Tse & K. Tsui

Evaluation of relevance of stochastic parameters on Hidden Markov Models
B. Roblès, M. Avila, F. Duculty, P. Vrignat & F. Kratz

Exploitation of built in test for diagnosis by using Dynamic Fault Trees: Implementation in Matlab Simulink
E. Gascard, Z. Simeu-Abazi & J. Younes

Fault detection through physical modelling in an axial flow compressor of a combined-cycle power plant
J.A. García-Matos, M.A. Sanz-Bobi, A. Muñoz & A. Sola

Fault propagation in systems operating phased missions
R. Remenyte-Prescott & J.D. Andrews

Guaranteeing high availability of wind turbines
G. Haddad, P.A. Sandborn, T. Jazouli, M.G. Pecht, B. Foucher & V. Rouet

Method of fault detection and isolation in nonlinear electrical circuits
A. Zhirabok & D. Tkachev

Modeling and fleet effect for the diagnosis of a system behavior
F. Ankoud, G. Mourot, J. Ragot, R. Chevalier & N. Paul

One-class SVM in multi-task learning
X. He, G. Mourot, D. Maquin, J. Ragot, P. Beauseroy, A. Smolarz & E. Grall-Maës

Periodical inspection frequency of safety related control systems in machinery—practical recommendations for the determination
M. Dzwiarek & O. Hryniewicz

Predictive maintenance policy for oil well equipment in case of scaling through support vector machines
M.C. Moura, I.D. Lins, R.J. Ferreira, E.L. Droguett & C.M.C. Jacinto

Scope and potential of applying artificial neural networks in reliability prediction with a focus on railway rolling stock
O. Fink & U. Weidmann

State estimation for nonlinear system diagnosis using multiple models: Application to wastewater treatment plants
A.M. Kiss, B. Marx, G. Mourot & J. Ragot

Supervision of switching systems based on dynamical classification approach
A. Chammas, M. Traoré, E. Duviella & S. Lecoeuche

Fault tolerant control and systems

Control allocation of k-out-of-n systems based on Bayesian Network reliability model: Application to a drinking water network
P. Weber, C. Simon, D. Theilliol & V. Puig

Design of fault tolerant control for nonlinear systems subject to time varying faults
T. Bouarar, B. Marx, D. Maquin & J. Ragot

Fault-Tolerant system design in multiple operating modes using a structural model
B. Conrard, V. Cocquempot & S. Mili

Guaranteed localization using reliability of measurements in imperfect mobile sensor networks
F. Mourad, H. Snoussi, F. Abdallah & C. Richard

Leak detection in the lubrication system of an aircraft turbine engine
L. Rakoto, M. Kinnaert, M. Strengnart & N. Raimarckers

Prognosis applied to an electromechanical system: A nonlinear approach based on sliding mode observer
D. Gucik-Derigny, R. Outbib & M. Ouladsine

R2wAC: Recursive redundancy with active comparison
J.G. de Chavarri, J. Mendizabal Samper, A. Villaro, S. Urcelayeta, J.M. Blanco & A. Galarza

Sensor and actuator faults estimation for Takagi-Sugeno models using descriptor approach: Application to Fault Tolerant Control
M. Bouattour, M. Chadli, A. El Hajjaji & M. Chaabane

Human factors and human reliability

A model-based approach for the collection of human reliability data
S. Massaiu

Accidents in the gas distribution industry: Some consequences of the introduction of new analysis criteria
G. Desmorat, P. Desideri, F. Loth, F. Guarnieri & D. Besnard

An approach to predict human reliability in manual assembly
B. Günnel, M. Schlummer, A. Meyna, M. Schick, F. Heumeni & M. Haueis

Assessing the impact of domain-specific cognitive profiles on the reliability of human operators in the railway domain
M. Arenius, O. Sträter, M. Hammerl, M. Talg, K. Lemmer, H. Franzmeyer & B. Milius

Bayesian network modelling for fire safety assessment: Part I—a study of human reaction during the initial stages of a dwelling fire
D.B. Matellini, A.D. Wall, I.D. Jenkinson, J. Wang & R. Pritchard

Concept of operations for data fusion visualization
T.R. McJunkin, R.L. Boring, M.A. McQueen, L.P. Shunn, J.L. Wright, D.I. Gertman, O. Linda, K. McCarty & M. Manic

Developing and evaluating the Bayesian Belief Network as a human reliability model using artificial data
Y. Stempfel & V.N. Dang

Implementing of new methods for assessing human risk in maintenance
R. Doležal

Information foraging in nuclear power plant control rooms
R.L. Boring

Integration of human factors in project uncertainty management, a decision support system based on fuzzy logic
S. Hassanzadeh, F. Marmier, D. Gourc & S. Bougaret

Offshore supply vessels design and operation: A human factors exploration
V. Rumawas & B.E. Asbjørnslett

Participant motivation in experiment of emergency operating procedures
F. Song, S. Xu & Z.Z. Li

Pendulum shifts, context, error, and personal accountability
H.S. Blackman & O.V. Hester

Quantitative retrospective analysis of CREAM in maritime operations
Z.L. Yang & J. Wang

Tailoring the HEART technique for application in the rail industry
W.H. Gibson, C. Dennis, K. Thompson, A. Mills & B. Kirwan

Task Analysis and modelling based on Human-Centred Design approach in ATC work
S. Inoue, H. Aoyama, K. Yamazaki, K. Nakata & K. Furuta

Teamwork competencies required by members of integrated operations teams in the petroleum industry
A.B. Skjerve & G. Rindahl

The development and application of CARA—a HRA tool for Air Traffic Management systems
B. Kirwan, A. Kilner, W.H. Gibson, D. Piccione & M. Sawyer

The meaning of human performance data observed from simulator studies on human reliability analysis
J. Park & W. Jung

The right HRA model for the right HRA application
V. Fauchille

Three Human Reliability Analyses under the MERMOS light
P. Le Bot & H. Pesme

Towards a unified human reliability model
P.A. Baziuk, S. Rivera & J.N. Mc Leod

Maintenance modelling and optimisation

A complete probabilistic spare parts stock model under uncertainty
J. Lonchampt & K. Fessart

A framework for selection of test method for safety critical valves
E.B. Abrahamsen & W. Røed

A maintenance strategy for systems subject to competing failure modes due to multiple internal defects and external shocks
I.T. Castro

A new modeling framework of component degradation
P. Baraldi, A. Balestrero, M. Compare, E. Zio, L. Benetrix & A. Despujols

A Petri net model of aircraft maintenance scheduling
D.R. Prescott

A simulation model for complex repairable systems with inter-component dependencies and three types of component failures
J. Malinowski

A study of the effect of imperfect inspection on the efficacy of maintenance for a non-repairable system with a defective state
M.D. Berrade, P.A. Scarf & C.A.V. Cavalcante

Adaptive condition-based maintenance models for deteriorating systems operating under variable environment and indirect condition monitoring
K.T. Huynh, A. Barros & C. Bérenguer

An optimal periodic preventive maintenance policy of a deteriorating system subject to a bivariate state process
R. Ahmadi & M. Newby

Application of RFMEA to risk analysis of maintenance of electric facilities
M. Ko & T. Nishikawa

Combined representation of coupling effects in maintenance processes of complex engineering systems
V. Volovoi & R. Valenzuela Vega


Developments of time dependencies modelling concepts
T. Nowakowski & S. Werbinska-Wojciechowska

Dynamic grouping maintenance strategy with time limited opportunities
P. Do Van, F. Brissaud, A. Barros, C. Bérenguer & K. Bouvard

Dynamic maintenance requirements analysis in asset management
R.A. Dwight, P. Gordon & P.A. Scarf

Failure risk analysis and maintenance effectiveness in a windturbine according to its history of unavailability and applied maintenance
M.A. Sanz-Bobi, R.J.A. Vieira & X. Montilla

Functional and economic obsolescence of assets in network utilities according to different environmental factors
J.F. Gómez, V. González, L. Barberá & A. Crespo

Impact of maintenance on the replacement investment under technological improvement
T.P.K. Nguyen, T.G. Yeung & B. Castanier

Integrating production and maintenance planning for a parallel system with dependent components
M. Nourelfath & E. Châtelet

Maintenance effect modelling and optimization of a two-components system
W. Lair, R. Ziani, S. Mercier & M. Roussignol

Multicriteria paradigm and Multi-objective Optimization on maintenance modeling
C.A.V. Cavalcante & A.T. de Almeida

Optimal preventive maintenance schedules using specific genetic algorithms and probabilistic graphical model
I. Ayadi, L. Bouillaut, P. Aknin & P. Siarry

Optimal prognostic maintenance planning for multi-component systems
A. Van Horenbeek & L. Pintelon

Optimization of redundancy and imperfect preventive maintenance for series-parallel multi-state systems
M. Nourelfath & E. Châtelet

Predicting rail geometry deterioration by regression models
F.P. Westgeest, R. Dekker & R.H. Fischer

Probability distribution of maintenance cost of a repairable system modeled as an alternating renewal process
T. Cheng, M.D. Pandey & J.A.M. van der Weide

Robustness of maintenance decisions: Uncertainty modelling and value of information
A. Zitrou, T. Bedford & A. Daneshkhah

Semi-Markov processes for coverage modeling and optimal maintenance policies of an automated restoration mechanism
H.C. Grigoriadou, V.P. Koutras & A.N. Platis

Semi-parametric estimation and condition-based maintenance
M. Fouladirad, A. Grall & C. Paroissin

Simple Non-Markovian models for complex repair and maintenance strategies with LARES+
M. Walter

SIS-design automation by use of Abstract Safety Markup Language
K. Machleidt, L. Litz & T. Gabriel

SPAMUF: A behaviour-based maintenance prediction system
P. Bastos, I. Lopes & L. Pires

Spare parts provision for a maintained system with a heterogeneous lifetime
P.A. Scarf & C.A.V. Cavalcante

State based models applied to offshore wind turbine maintenance and renewal
Z. Hameed & J. Vatn

The analysis and conversion of warranty maintenance tasks for a power plant
B.M. Alkali & P. McGibney

Mathematical methods in reliability and safety

A block replacement policy for a bivariate wear subordinator
S. Mercier & M. Roussignol

A Monte Carlo approach for evaluation of availability and failure intensity under g-renewal process model
O. Yevkin

A new criterion for design of brittle components and for assessing their vulnerability to brittle fracture
M.T. Todinov

Application of competing risks and generalized renewal processes in reliability analysis
R.J. Ferreira, M.C. Moura, E.A.L. Droguett & P.R.A. Firmino

Early detection of change-point in occurrence rate with small sample size
L. Bordes, C. Paroissin & J.-C. Turlot

Fine exact methods of safety, security and risk engineering
D. Prochazkova

Importance measures and common-cause failures in network reliability
C. Tanguy

Multivariate Gumbel distributions for Reliability Assessment
B.J. Leira & D. Myrhaug

Nonparametric predictive inference for reliability of a series of subsystems with multiple component types
A.M. Aboalkhair, F.P.A. Coolen & I.M. MacPhee

Numerical method for the distribution of a service time of a structure subject to corrosion
A. Brandejsky, B. de Saporta, F. Dufour & C. Elegbede

On generalized shot noise-type stochastic failure model
J.H. Cha & M. Finkelstein

Probabilistic prognosis of a system: Application to a pneumatic valve
A. Lorton, M. Fouladirad & A. Grall

Reliability of the power electronic components by their dynamical simulation in real working conditions
J. de Reffye

Scenario analysis and PRA: Overview and lessons learned
D. Mandelli, T. Aldemir & A. Yilmaz

Small failure probabilities and copula functions: Preliminary studies on structural reliability analysis
E.A. Tamparopoulos, P. Spyridis & K. Bergmeister

Structure decision making for MSS refrigeration system
I. Frenkel, L. Khvatskin & A. Lisnianski

The Inverse Gamma process for modeling state-dependent deterioration processes
M. Guida & G. Pulcini

The method of safe 4D flight trajectory prediction in controlled airspace
M. Piatek & A. Stelmach

Process oriented simulation framework for Common-Cause Failure assessment
E. Bejdakic, M. Krauß & H.-P. Berg

The unique signal applied to weapon system safety design
L.Y. Xiao, J. Li, B. Suo & S. Li

Uncertainty analysis via failure domain characterization: Polynomial requirement functions
L.G. Crespo, C.A. Muñoz, A.J. Narkawicz, S.P. Kenny & D.P. Giesy

Uncertainty assessment in semi Markov methods for Weibull functions distributions
M. Zajac & A. Kierzkowski

Occupational safety

An engineering and psycho-social integrated approach for Work-Related Stress (WRS)
assessment and management
P. Citti, M. Delogu, A. Meneghin & F. Pagliai

Applying the safe place, safe person, safe systems framework to the healthcare industry
O. Lasaki, A.-M. Makin & C. Winder

Applying the safe place, safe person, safe systems framework to the management of biohazards
A. Bamford, A.-M. Makin & C. Winder

Cognitive, affective and behaviour outcomes of a safety training program
L.O. Duarte, S.A. Olea & S.A. Silva

Manual handling operations risk assessment
A.R. Burcíaga-Ortega & J.R. Santos-Reyes

Measurement of safety social norms at organizations: Construct validation of a safety social norms survey
C.S. Fugas, S.A. Silva & J.L. Meliá

Organizing for quality and safety in health care—the Norwegian case
S. Wiig, J. Quartz, C.v. Plessen & S. Harthug

Safety design of high consequence systems based on first principles
S. Li, J. Li, B. Suo & L.Y. Xiao

The contribution of balanced scorecards to the management of occupational health and safety
F. Juglaret, J.M. Rallo, R. Textoris, F. Guarnieri & E. Garbolino

The impact of framework conditions on HSE in subcontracting/outsourcing
K. Skarholt, U. Forseth, M. Hermundsgård & R. Rosness

The impact of human and organisational factors on risk perception on Danish production platforms
H.B. Rasmussen

Quantitative risk assessment

A BBN risk model of maintenance work on major process equipment on offshore petroleum installations
B.A. Gran, O.M. Nyheim, J. Seljelid & J.E. Vinnem

A methodology to quantitative ecological risk assessment for industrial accidents
O.H. Duarte & E.A. Droguett

A predicting method of system safety risk state transition time based on Markov process
H.T. Li, X.M. Liu, J.L. Zhou & G. Jin


A research on simulation methods for system risk assessment
X.M. Liu, H.T. Li, J.L. Zhou & P.C. Luo

Assessment of common cause failures and defensive measures for the representation of I&C in probabilistic models
G. Deleuze, N. Thuy, R. Quatrain & F. Jouanet

Combining FMECA and fault trees for declining safety requirements of complex systems
R. Guillerm, H. Demmou & N. Sadou

Discussion of a mathematical model to simulate a fire ball from gaseous explosion (BLEVE)
A.N. Haddad & E.B.F. Galante

Enabling quantitative risk assessment of the real