Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Risk of Conflict Over Taiwan

1. Auflage 2024
ISBN: 978-1-032-89633-5
Verlag: Routledge

Buch, Englisch, 192 Seiten, Format (B × H): 156 mm x 234 mm, Gewicht: 304 g

Reihe: Adelphi series

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’.

 

In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

Zielgruppe

Postgraduate, Professional Reference, and Undergraduate Advanced

Autoren/Hrsg.

Emmott, Bill

Fachgebiete

• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Politikwissenschaft Allgemein

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Author

 

Acknowledgements

 

Map 1: Taiwan and its surrounding region

 

Introduction: Danger, hiding in plain sight

 

Chapter One: Why Indo-Pacific deterrence matters

Why the stakes in Taiwan are so high

The conflict to be deterred

 

Chapter Two: Deterrence lessons from Ukraine

Eight lessons from Ukraine

Specific implications for China

Specific implications for Taiwan

Specific implications for the United States

 

Chapter Three: Yardsticks for deterrence

A world in flux

Rationality without MADness

An unstable status quo

Yardsticks for Indo-Pacific deterrence

 

Chapter Four: Consistent America, inconstant America

Political will: consistency and clarity of deterrence messages

Military capability and coalition credibility

The narrative yardstick

 

Chapter Five: Taiwan and its predicament

Military resilience

Civil resilience

Narrative clarity

 

Chapter Six: Coercive China, deterrent China

Deterring an intervention

Controlling the nuclear risk

Controlling the narrative

 

Chapter Seven: Allies and partners: the role of Japan

Japan, from self-defence to constrained deterrence

Constrained but speedy?

Many unanswered questions

 

Chapter Eight: The Philippines, Australia and other partners

The Philippines as an unsinkable logistics centre

Australia: far away but now committed

Other allies and bystanders, near and far

ASEAN non-centrality

Limits to the ASEAN way

Dreaming of a more balanced region

 

Conclusion: Nostalgic for Cold War realism

                    Needed: the good aspect of Cold War diplomacy

 

 

Notes

 

Index

Über Autor(innen)

Bill Emmott is Chairman of the IISS Trustees and an independent writer and consultant. He spent 26 years at The Economist, which he joined in 1980, working as a correspondent and editor in Brussels, Tokyo and London, on subjects ranging from politics to finance, economics and business. In 1993, he was appointed editor-in-chief, a post he held for 13 years before stepping down in 2006.

He is Senior Adviser, Geopolitics for Montrose Associates, Chair of the Japan Society of the UK, an Ushioda Fellow of Tokyo College, University of Tokyo, Chair of the International Trade Institute, a trustee of the Chester Beatty Library, and a member of the Comitato Scientifico of the Centro Einaudi in Turin. He writes for La Stampa in Italy, Nikkei Business and the Mainichi Shimbun in Japan, and occasionally for the Financial Times. He is the author of numerous books on Japan, Asia, Italy and the West, his latest being The Fate of the West (Profile, 2017) and Japan’s Far More Female Future: Increasing Gender Equality and Reducing Workplace Insecurity Will Make Japan Stronger (Oxford University Press, 2020).