Garrick Quantifying and Controlling Catastrophic Risks

1. Auflage 2008
ISBN: 978-0-08-092345-1
Verlag: Elsevier Science & Techn.
Format: EPUB
Kopierschutz: 6 - ePub Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 376 Seiten

The perception, assessment and management of risk are increasingly important core principles for determining the development of both policy and strategic responses to civil and environmental catastrophes. Whereas these principles were once confined to some areas of activity i.e. financial and insurance, they are now widely used in civil and environmental engineering. Comprehensive and readable, Civil and Environmental Risk: Mitigation and Control, provides readers with the mathematical tools and quantitative methods for determining the probability of a catastrophic event and mitigating and controlling the aftermath. With this book engineers develop the required skills for accurately assessing risk and formulating appropriate response strategies. The two part treatment starts with a clear and rigorous exposition of the quantitative risk assessment process, followed by self-contained chapters concerning applications. One of the first books to address both natural and human generated disasters, topics include events such as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents and terrorist attacks. Case studies appear at the end of the book allowing engineers to see how these principles are applied to scenarios such as a super hurricane or mega tsunamis, a reactor core melt down in a nuclear plant, a terrorist attack on the national electric grid, and an abrupt climate change brought about by a change in the ocean currents in the North Atlantic. Written by the current Chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, Environmental risk managers will find this reference a valuable and authoritative guide both in accurately calculating risk and its applications in their work.
Key Features
Mathematical tools for calculating and Controlling Catastrophic Risk
Presents a systematic method for ranking the importance of societal threats
Includes both Natural and Industrial Catastrophes
Case studies cover such events as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents, and terrorist attacks.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Garrick, B. John

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Front Cover;1
2;Quantifying and Controlling Catastrophic Risks;4
3;Copyright Page;5
4;Dedication Page;6
5;About the Author;14
6;Acknowledgments;16
7;Foreword;18
8;Preface;22
9;Chapter 1: Societal Risks in Need of Understanding and Action;24
9.1;1.1. The Target Risks;24
9.2;1.2. The Quantitative Definition of Risk;28
9.3;1.3. The Process of Quantitative Risk Assessment;29
9.4;1.4. The Meaning of Quantification;31
9.5;1.5. Form of the Results of a Quantitative Risk Assessment;35
9.6;References;39
10;Chapter 2: Analytical Foundations of Quantitative Risk Assessment;40
10.1;2.1. Quantitative Definition of Risk;41
10.2;2.2. The Scenario Approach to Quantitative Risk Assessment;42
10.3;2.3. Interpretation of Probability and Likelihood;43
10.4;2.4. Quantification of the Scenarios;45
10.5;2.5. Assembling the Results;51
10.6;References;54
11;Chapter 3: Case Study 1: Risk of a Catastrophic Hurricane in New Orleans, LA;56
11.1;3.1. Summary of the Risk Assessment of a Catastrophic Hurricane Impacting New Orleans, LA;59
11.2;3.2. Risk Assessment (Based on Data from 1900 to 2004);62
11.3;3.3. Commentary on the New Orleans Hurricane Risk;87
11.4;3.4. Risk Assessment (Based on Data from 1900 to 1950);88
11.5;References;98
12;Chapter 4: Case Study 2: Risk of Asteroids Impacting the Earth;100
12.1;4.1. Summary of the Fatality Risk of an Asteroid Impacting the 48 States;105
12.2;4.2. Risk Assessment;107
12.3;4.3. Future Action;125
12.4;4.4. The Risk from an Asteroid Impacting New Orleans;125
12.5;References;131
13;Chapter 5: Case Study 3: Terrorist Attack on the National Electrical Grid;134
13.1;5.1. Summary of Insights from the Scoping Analysis;136
13.2;5.2. A Scoping Analysis to Support a Quantitative Risk Assessment of a Specific Terrorist Attack;137
13.3;References;200
14;Chapter 6: Case Study 4: Abrupt Climate Change;202
14.1;6.1. Summary of Insights from the Scoping Analysis;204
14.2;6.2. Scoping Analysis to Support a Quantitative Risk Assessment of Abrupt Climate Change;205
14.3;6.3. Illustration of Bayesian Analyses for Warming Rates;221
14.4;References;223
15;Chapter 7: Examples of Risks Having the Potential for Catastrophic Consequences;226
15.1;7.1. Nuclear War;228
15.2;7.2. Super Volcanoes;231
15.3;7.3. Destruction of the Ozone Layer;233
15.4;7.4. Global Water Management;234
15.5;7.5. Pollution from Fossil Fuels;235
15.6;7.6. Infectious Disease Pandemic;237
15.7;7.7. Species Destruction: Tropical Rainforests;239
15.8;7.8. Species Destruction: Coral Reefs;240
15.9;7.9. Giant Tsunamis;241
15.10;7.10. Genetic Engineering and Synthetic Biology;243
15.11;7.11. Global Warming;246
15.12;7.12. Super Earthquakes;247
15.13;7.13. Industrial Accidents;248
15.14;7.14. Nanotechnology;251
15.15;7.15. Population Management;252
15.16;References;253
16;Chapter 8: The Rational Management of Catastrophic Risks;254
16.1;8.1. Benefits of Quantitative Risk Assessment;255
16.2;8.2. The Role of the Case Studies;255
16.3;8.3. Comparing Quantitative Risks Using the Case Studies;256
16.4;8.4. Observations from the Case Studies;259
16.5;8.5. Insights from Comparing Risks;261
16.6;8.6. Where Do We Go from Here?;262
16.7;References;264
17;Appendix A: Roots of Quantitative Risk Assessment with an Example;266
17.1;A.1. Calculating Likelihoods;266
17.2;A.2. Structuring the Scenarios;268
17.3;A.3. Steps That Have Evolved for Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment;272
17.4;A.4. Application to Nuclear Power: A Success Story;273
17.5;A.5. An Example of Nuclear Power Plant Quantitative Risk Assessment Results;279
17.6;References;291
18;Appendix B: Supporting Evidence for the Case Study of the Hurricane Risk in New Orleans, LA;294
18.1;B.1. Hurricane Risk Assessment for the Period 1900-2004;294
18.2;B.2. Hurricane Risk Assessment for the Period 1900-1950;315
19;Appendix C: Supporting Evidence for the Case Study on Asteroid Risk;328
19.1;C.1. Asteroid Risk Assessment for the 48 Contiguous States of the United States of America;328
19.2;C.2. Asteroid Risk Assessment for Metropolitan New Orleans, LA;359
19.3;References;363
20;Author Index;364
21;Subject Index;366