The Uncertainty Analysis of Model Results

A Practical Guide
1. Auflage 2018
ISBN: 978-3-319-76296-8
Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Buch, Englisch, 346 Seiten, Format (B × H): 160 mm x 241 mm, Gewicht: 711 g

This book is a practical guide to the uncertainty analysis of computer model applications. Used in many areas, such as engineering, ecology and economics, computer models are subject to various uncertainties at the level of model formulations, parameter values and input data. Naturally, it would be advantageous to know the combined effect of these uncertainties on the model results as well as whether the state of knowledge should be improved in order to reduce the uncertainty of the results most effectively. The book supports decision-makers, model developers and users in their argumentation for an uncertainty analysis and assists them in the interpretation of the analysis results.

Zielgruppe

Research

Autoren/Hrsg.

Hofer, Eduard

Fachgebiete

• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Numerik und Wissenschaftliches Rechnen Angewandte Mathematik, Mathematische Modelle
• Technische Wissenschaften Technik Allgemein Modellierung & Simulation
• Technische Wissenschaften Maschinenbau | Werkstoffkunde Produktionstechnik
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Volkswirtschaftslehre Volkswirtschaftslehre Allgemein Wirtschaftstheorie, Wirtschaftsphilosophie
• Mathematik | Informatik EDV | Informatik Professionelle Anwendung Computersimulation & Modelle, 3-D Graphik
• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Stochastik Mathematische Statistik

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Preface.- Introduction and necessary distinctions.- Step 1: Search.- Step 2: Quantify.- Step 3: Propagate.- Step 4: Estimate uncertainty.- Step 5: Rank uncertainties.- Step 6: Present the analysis and interpret its results.- Practical execution of the analysis.- Uncertainty analysis when separation of uncertainties is required.- Practical examples.- References.- Subject index.

Über Autor(innen)

Eduard Hofer holds a Master of Science diploma with distinction in mathematics from the Technical University of Munich (TUM), Germany. He developed a method for the numerical solution of initial value problems with large systems of stiff first-order ordinary differential equations. He also designed a non-commercial, PC-based software system for uncertainty analysis of results from computer models and conducted the uncertainty analysis of numerous applications of computationally demanding computer models. Hofer served on the external peer-review committee of a major US dose reconstruction study with the subtask in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and contributed to numerous international conferences. Furthermore, he received an award for his contributions in the field of probabilistic risk assessment.