Forecasting China's Future

Dominance or Collapse?
1. Auflage 2015
ISBN: 978-1-138-91675-3
Verlag: Routledge

Buch, Englisch, 224 Seiten, Format (B × H): 161 mm x 240 mm, Gewicht: 508 g

Reihe: Routledge Contemporary China Series

China’s future development is likely to have a huge impact on twenty-first century global outcomes. It is therefore surprising that, thus far, so little attention has been given to comparing and evaluating expert forecasts of China’s future in the post-Mao era.

This book presents an illuminating and comprehensive summary record of contrasting and competing expert forecasts and judgements about the major issues confronting China within four principal domains – political, economic, environmental, and international. After considering the principal forecasting methods available to experts, the author comments critically on the degree of success achieved in using those methods and emphasises the confusion created by the polarisation of opinion and by the failure of many experts to accept the high degree of uncertainty that characterises most of the key issues. The book recommends a new approach based on the study of a hierarchy of critical uncertainties and on continuing analysis of opposing expert opinions about these uncertainties. It emphasises the potential for both positive and negative outcomes for these critical uncertainties, and the importance of maximising the potential for positive outcomes through improved analytical and policy frameworks.

Providing insights for specialists and non-specialists into the most critical issues that will determine China’s future direction, this book will be of particular interest to students and scholars of political, economic, environmental, and international relations issues in China and Asia, as well as to readers in business and government.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Irvine, Roger

Fachgebiete

• Sozialwissenschaften Ethnologie | Volkskunde Volkskunde
• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Politikwissenschaft Allgemein
• Interdisziplinäres Wissenschaften Wissenschaften Interdisziplinär Regionalwissenschaften, Regionalstudien
• Geisteswissenschaften Geschichtswissenschaft Geschichtliche Themen Mentalitäts- und Sozialgeschichte
• Sozialwissenschaften Soziologie | Soziale Arbeit Spezielle Soziologie Stadt- und Regionalsoziologie

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1. Introduction 2. Pessimists and Optimists 3. Acknowledging Uncertainty 4. Political Uncertainties 5. Economic Uncertainties 6. Environmental Uncertainties 7. International Uncertainties 8. Embracing Uncertainty

Über Autor(innen)

Roger Irvine is a Visiting Research Fellow at the University of Adelaide, South Australia. He was a visiting scholar at Tsinghua University, China during 2010 and at National Chengchi University, Taiwan during 2014.