Morlidge / Player Future Ready

How to Master Business Forecasting
1. Auflage 2010
ISBN: 978-0-470-66221-2
Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
Format: EPUB
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 328 Seiten, E-Book

The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed seriousflaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and dealwith the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starklyillustrated what many leaders and managers in business have knownfor years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting isbadly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performancetops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe.
It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and runforecasting processes and how they use the insights that theyprovide to navigate through these turbulent times. This booksynthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines andover 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This ispresented in the form of a set of simple strategies that anyorganization can use to master the process of forecasting. The keymessage of this book is that while no mortal can predict thefuture, you can take the steps to be ready for it. 'Goodenough' forecasts, wise preparation and the capability totake timely action, will help your organization to create its ownfuture.
Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, FutureReady leads the reader to answers to questions such as:
* What makes a good forecast?
* What period should a forecast cover?
* How frequently should it be updated?
* What information should it contain?
* What is the best way to produce a forecast?
* How can you avoid gaming and other forms of datamanipulation?
* How should a forecast be used?
* How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable?
* How accurate does it need to be?
* How should you deal with risk and uncertainty
* What is the best way to organize a forecast process?
* Do you need multiple forecasts?
* What changes should be made to other performance managementprocesses to facilitate good forecasting?
Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicingmanagers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders lookingfor better ways of doing things and to students of the science andcraft of management.
Praise for Future Ready
"Will make a difference to the way you think about forecastinggoing forward"
--Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC
"Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theoryin a language that even the most reading-averse manager will lovefrom page one"
--Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance ManagementDevelopment at StatoilHydro
"A timely addition to the growing research on managementplanning and performance measurement."
--Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professorof Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of manystandard texts including Cost Accounting: A ManagerialEmphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, andFinancial Accounting
"In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in themarket."
--Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance ExecutiveAdvisory Program, the Hackett Group

Autoren/Hrsg.

Morlidge, Steve

Player, Steve

Inhaltsverzeichnis

TABLE OF FIGURES.
FOREWORD.
PREFACE.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.
SECTION 1 'Why?'
Chapter 1 Part 1 Why Change? Everyone Knows the Trouble I'veSeen.
Chapter 1 Part 2 Forecasting Disease, the Symptoms and theRemedy.
SECTION 2 Principles.
Chapter 2 Mastering Purpose - the Cassandra Paradox.
Chapter 3 Mastering Time - Delay and Decision.
Chapter 4 Mastering Models: Mapping the Future.
Chapter 5 Mastering Measurement - Learning to LoveError.
Chapter 6 Mastering Risks: How the Paranoid Survive.
SECTION 3 'Praxis'.
Chapter 7 Mastering Process: The Mother of Good Fortune.
Theme #1 Recipe for success: tips and traps.
Theme #2 Coordination in a complex system: how differentcan we be?
Theme #3 Whose job is it anyway? Roles andresponsibilities.
SECTION 4 Transformation.
Chapter 8 Implementation: Beginnings and Endings.
Chapter 9 Beyond Forecasting: The Biggest Barrier.
Chapter 10 Beyond Budgeting: A New Management Model?
Chapter 11 Conclusion: Reconnection.
GLOSSARY.
Appendix 1 - Design Principles: A Summary.
Appendix 2 - Important Concepts in Systems andCybernetics.
REFERENCES.
INDEX.

Über Autor(innen)

Steve Morlidge has 30 years of practical experience indesigning and running performance management systems in Unilever,including 3 years as the lead of a global change project. He is aformer Chairman of the European Beyond Budgeting Round Table andnow works as an academic and as an independent consultant for arange of major companies. He is a prominent public speaker, drawingon his years of experience at the leading edge of performance.management thought and practice
Contact: [e-mail]
Web: www.satoripartners.co.uk.
Steve Player founder and managing director of The PlayerGroup, has co-authored and edited five industry-leading cost andperformance management books. He is program director for the BeyondBudgeting Round Table in North America. He served as the ManagingPartner of the Advanced Cost Management Team of a global accountingfirm. He is a top ranked speaker and consultant helping clientsimplement leading edge practices. he also writes a monthly columnon Finance Transformation.
Contact: [e-mail]
Web: www.theplayergroup.com.