COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics

Mathematical Simulations
1. Auflage 2021
ISBN: 978-981-336-418-9
Verlag: Springer Nature Singapore

Buch, Englisch, 172 Seiten, Format (B × H): 155 mm x 235 mm, Gewicht: 289 g

This book highlights the estimate of epidemic characteristics for different countries/regions in the world with the use of known SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model for the dynamics of the epidemic, the known exact solution of the linear differential equations and statistical approach developed before. The COVID-19 pandemic is of great interest to researchers due to its high mortality and a negative impact to the world economy. Correct simulation of the pandemic dynamics needs complicated mathematical models and many efforts for unknown parameters identification. The simple method of detection of the new pandemic wave is proposed and SIR model generalized. The hidden periods, epidemic durations, final numbers of cases, the effective reproduction numbers and probabilities of meeting an infected person are presented for countries like USA, Germany, UK, the Republic of Korea, Italy, Spain, France, the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, and for the world. The presented information is useful to regulate the quarantine activities and to predict the medical and economic consequences of different/future pandemics. 

Zielgruppe

Research

Autoren/Hrsg.

Nesteruk, Igor

Fachgebiete

• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Stochastik Stochastische Prozesse
• Naturwissenschaften Physik Physik Allgemein Theoretische Physik, Mathematische Physik, Computerphysik
• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Stochastik Mathematische Statistik
• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Numerik und Wissenschaftliches Rechnen Angewandte Mathematik, Mathematische Modelle
• Medizin | Veterinärmedizin Medizin | Public Health | Pharmazie | Zahnmedizin Medizin, Gesundheitswesen Epidemiologie, Medizinische Statistik
• Technische Wissenschaften Technik Allgemein Modellierung & Simulation
• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Stochastik Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung
• Medizin | Veterinärmedizin Medizin | Public Health | Pharmazie | Zahnmedizin Medizin, Gesundheitswesen Präventivmedizin, Gesundheitsförderung, Medizinisches Screening
• Medizin | Veterinärmedizin Medizin | Public Health | Pharmazie | Zahnmedizin Medizin, Gesundheitswesen Public Health, Gesundheitsmanagement, Gesundheitsökonomie, Gesundheitspolitik

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Introduction.- Data used for calculations, comparisons and verifications.- Classical SIR model and the exact solution of differential equations.- Results of SIR simulation for the pandemic dynamics in different countries and regions.- Procedures of the parameter identification for the waves of epidemics.- Conclusions.

Über Autor(innen)

Dr. Igor Nesteruk is Leading Researcher at the Institute of Hydromechanics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, and Head of Laboratory of Biomedical Electronics at Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute. His main research interests are inverse non-steady problems of fluid mechanics, supercavitation, flow control, biomedical signal processing and mathematical simulations of infectious diseases.