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E-Book, Englisch, 256 Seiten

Pettis The Great Rebalancing

Trade, Conflict, and the Perilous Road Ahead for the World Economy - Updated Edition
Updated Auflage
ISBN: 978-1-4008-5226-0
Verlag: De Gruyter
Format: EPUB
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

Trade, Conflict, and the Perilous Road Ahead for the World Economy - Updated Edition

E-Book, Englisch, 256 Seiten

ISBN: 978-1-4008-5226-0
Verlag: De Gruyter
Format: EPUB
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)



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Preface to the Paperback Edition xi

CHAPTER ONE Trade Imbalances and the Global Financial Crisis 1

- Underconsumption 4

- The Different Explanations of Trade Imbalance 6

- Destabilizing Imbalances 9

- We Have the Tools 11

- Why the Confusion? 14

- Some Accounting Identities 17

- The Inanity of Moralizing 19

- The New Economic Writing 22

CHAPTER TWO How Does Trade Intervention Work? 26

- Trade Intervention Affects the Savings Rate 29

- Currency Manipulation 32

- Exporting Capital Means Importing Demand 34

- What Happens If China Revalues the Renminbi? 37

- Wealth Is Transferred within China 40

- Does China Need a Social Safety Net? 42

CHAPTER THREE The Many Forms of Trade Intervention 47

- How Changes in Wealth Affect Savings 50

- Wage Growth 52

- Trade Policy as the Implicit Consequence of Transfers 55

- Financial Repression 58

- Higher Interest Rates and Household Wealth 61

- Do Higher Interest Rates Stimulate or Reduce Consumption? 64

- Currency versus Interest Rates 66

CHAPTER FOUR The Case of Unbalanced Growth in China 69

- What Kind of Imbalance? 74

- Growth Miracles Are Not New 78

- The Brazilian Miracle 81

- Powering Growth 84

- Paying for Subsidies 87

- Limits to Backwardness 89

- The Trade Impact 92

- A Lost Decade? 94

- Can China Manage the Transition More Efficiently? 96

- Some More Misconceptions 97

CHAPTER FIVE The Other Side of the Imbalances 100

- Can Europe Change American Savings Rates? 103

- How Does Trade Rebalance? 106

- Globalization Is Not Bilateral 109

- The Global Shopping Spree 113

- Trade Remains Unbalanced 115

CHAPTER SIX The Case of Europe 119

- The Mechanics of Crisis 122

- Too Late 125

- German Thrift 128

- Forcing Germany to Adjust 131

- Two-Sided Adjustment 133

CHAPTER SEVEN Foreign Capital, Go Home! 136

- Swapping Assets 139

- It's about Trade, Not Capital 142

- Trade Imbalances Lead to Debt Imbalances 144

- The Current Account Dilemma 147

CHAPTER EIGHT The Exorbitant Burden 150

- Why Buy Dollars? 153

- It Is Better to Give Than to Receive 157

- Foreigners Fund Current Account Deficits, Not Fiscal Deficits 161

- Rebalancing the Scales 163

- When Are Net Capital Inflows a Good Thing? 166

- Can We Live without the Dollar? 168

- Why Not Use SDRs? 172

- An American Push Away from Exorbitant Privilege 174

CHAPTER NINE When Will the Global Crisis End? 178

- Transferring the Center of the Crisis 180

- Reversing the Rebalancing 183

- Some Predictions 185

- The Global Impact 191

APPENDIX Does income equality lead to unemployment? 197

Notes 217

Index 225


Michael Pettis is professor of finance and economics at Peking University, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment, and a widely read commentator on China, Europe, and the global economy. He is the author of The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economies and the Threat of Financial Collapse.



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