Skalski / Ryding / Millspaugh Wildlife Demography

Analysis of Sex, Age, and Count Data
1. Auflage 2010
ISBN: 978-0-08-045512-9
Verlag: Elsevier Science & Techn.
Format: EPUB
Kopierschutz: 6 - ePub Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 656 Seiten

Wildlife Demography compiles the multitude of available estimation techniques based on sex and age data, and presents these varying techniques in one organized, unified volume. Designed to guide researchers to the most appropriate estimator based upon their particular data set and the desired level of study precision, this book provides quantitative consideration, statistical models, estimator variance, assumptions and examples of use.
The authors focus on estimation techniques using sex and age ratios because this data is relatively easy to collect and commonly used by wildlife management
* Applicable to a wide array of wildlife species, including game and non-game birds and mammals
* Features more than 100 annotated examples illustrating application of statistical methods
* Includes more than 640 references of the analysis of nontagging data and the factors that may influence interpretation
* Derives historical and ad hoc demographic methods in a modern statistical framework

Autoren/Hrsg.

Skalski, John R.

Ryding, Kristin E.

Millspaugh, Joshua

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Front cover;1
2;Title page;4
3;Copyright page;5
4;Table of contents;6
5;Foreword;12
6;Preface;16
7;1 Introduction;20
7.1;1.1 Historical Perspectives and Current Needs;20
7.2;1.2 Scope of Book;22
8;2 Primer on Wildlife Population Dynamics;30
8.1;2.1 Introduction;30
8.2;2.2 Continuous Time Models;31
8.3;2.3 Discrete Time Models;33
8.4;2.4 Logistic Population Growth ;34
8.5;2.5 Age Structure Models;45
8.6;2.6 Stage Structure Models;54
8.7;2.7 Harvest Management Theory;56
8.7.1;2.7.1 Annual Surplus Model;58
8.7.2;2.7.2 Sustained Yield Model;62
8.8;2.8 Summary;66
9;3 Estimating Population Sex Ratios;68
9.1;3.1 Introduction;68
9.1.1;3.1.1 Statistical Notation;69
9.1.2;3.1.2 Alternative Definitions of Sex Ratio;70
9.1.3;3.1.3 Direct Versus Indirect Methods of Estimating Sex Ratios;71
9.2;3.2 Direct Sampling Techniques;71
9.2.1;3.2.1 Single Sample Survey without Replacement;71
9.2.2;3.2.2 Single Sample Survey with Replacement;74
9.2.3;3.2.3 Multiple Samples with Replacement;78
9.2.4;3.2.4 Stratified Random Sampling;81
9.2.5;3.2.5 Unequal Detection Probabilities among Sexes;84
9.2.6;3.2.6 Cluster Sampling Methods;85
9.3;3.3 Indirect Methods of Estimating Sex Ratios ;88
9.3.1;3.3.1 Sampling without Replacement ;89
9.3.2;3.3.2 Sampling with Replacement;93
9.3.3;3.3.3 Juvenile Sex Ratio . 1;94
9.4;3.4 Sex Ratio Projections Based on Survival and Harvest Rates ;95
9.4.1;3.4.1 Constant Annual Survival for All Age Classes ;96
9.4.2;3.4.2 Unique Juvenile Survival Probabilities;102
9.4.3;3.4.3 Unique Juvenile, Subadult, and Adult Survival Probabilities;103
9.4.4;3.4.4 Juvenile Sex Ratio . 1:1;103
9.5;3.5 Summary ;104
10;4 Estimating Productivity ;108
10.1;4.1 Introduction;108
10.1.1;4.1.1 Standard Notation;111
10.1.2;4.1.2 Alternative Definitions of Productivity Measures;111
10.1.3;4.1.3 Direct Versus Indirect Methods of Estimating Productivity ;112
10.2;4.2 Direct Sampling Techniques;113
10.2.1;4.2.1 Single Survey;113
10.2.2;4.2.2 Repeated Surveys;114
10.2.3;4.2.3 Productivity Adjusted for Breeding Success;116
10.2.4;4.2.4 Productivity Adjustment for Renesting ;117
10.2.5;4.2.5 Estimating Nesting Success: Mayfield (1975) Method ;121
10.3;4.3 Estimating Productivity from Sex and Age Ratios;124
10.3.1;4.3.1 Stokes (1954)–Hanson (1963) Method;124
10.3.2;4.3.2 Generalized Stokes (1954)–Hanson (1963) Method;128
10.3.3;4.3.3 Dale (1952)–Stokes (1954) Method ;133
10.3.4;4.3.4 Generalized Dale (1952)–Stokes (1954) Method;140
10.4;4.4 Summary;144
11;5 Estimating Survival;148
11.1;5.1 Introduction;149
11.2;5.2 Basic Concepts and Notation;149
11.2.1;5.2.1 Basic Concepts;149
11.2.2;5.2.2 Notation;152
11.3;5.3 Survival Curve Analysis;152
11.3.1;5.3.1 Kaplan-Meier (1958) or Product-Limit Estimator ;152
11.3.2;5.3.2 Nelson (1972)–Aalen (1978) Estimator;155
11.3.3;5.3.3 Nonparametric Test for Comparing Survival Curves;158
11.3.4;5.3.4 Parametric Survival Curve Analysis;160
11.4;5.4 Horizontal Life Tables;169
11.4.1;5.4.1 Standard Life-Table Analysis . ;170
11.4.2;5.4.2 Constant Survival Across Age Classes;174
11.5;5.5 Vertical Life Tables ;178
11.5.1;5.5.1 Standard Life-Table Analysis;179
11.5.2;5.5.2 Estimating Survival with Truncated Age Classes;187
11.5.3;5.5.3 Vertical Life Table with Constrained Survival ;187
11.6;5.6 Depositional Life Tables;188
11.6.1;5.6.1 Standard Life-Table Analysis;189
11.6.2;5.6.2 Nonstationary Populations: Udevitz and Ballachey ;191
11.7;5.7 lx-Series Data with Abbreviated or Pooled Age Classes ;196
11.7.1;5.7.1 Hayne and Eberhardt (1952);196
11.7.2;5.7.2 Modified Hayne and Eberhardt (1952) for Unequal Juvenile Survival;198
11.7.3;5.7.3 Modified Hayne and Eberhardt (1952) Pooling Older Age Age Classes;200
11.7.4;5.7.4 Modified Hayne and Eberthardt (1952) with Pooled Age Classes and Unique Juvenile Survival;202
11.7.5;5.7.5 Heincke (1913) and Burgoyne (1981);204
11.8;5.8 cx-Series Data with Abbreviated or Pooled Age Classes ;206
11.8.1;5.8.1 cx-Series with the First Three Age Classes;206
11.8.2;5.8.2 Older Age Classes Pooled ;209
11.9;5.9 Catch-Curve Analyses;212
11.9.1;5.9.1 Estimating Survival Using All Age Classes (Chapman and Robson 1960);212
11.9.2;5.9.2 Survival Estimation with Older Age Classes Pooled (Robson and Chapman 1961);216
11.9.3;5.9.3 Estimator for Left- and Right-Truncated Data: Chapman and Robson (1960) and Robson and Chapman (1961);218
11.10;5.10 Regression Techniques ;224
11.10.1;5.10.1 Regression on Age-Structure Data;224
11.10.2;5.10.2 Regression on Abundance Estimates;229
11.11;5.11 Estimating Juvenile Survival;230
11.11.1;5.11.1 Two-Sample Change-in-Ratio Methods of Hanson (1963) and Paulik and Robson (1969);231
11.11.2;5.11.2 Three-Sample Change-in-Ratio Methods of Selleck and Hart (1957) and White et al. (1996);235
11.11.3;5.11.3 Life-History Methods of Keith and Windberg (1978);240
11.12;5.12 Discussion;244
12;6 Estimating Harvest and Harvest Mortality;248
12.1;6.1 Introduction;248
12.2;6.2 Analysis of Harvest Records;249
12.2.1;6.2.1 Locker and Field Checks;250
12.2.2;6.2.2 Random Sample of Hunter Responses;252
12.2.3;6.2.3 Resampling for Nonresponse;257
12.3;6.3 Estimating Harvest by Area ;263
12.3.1;6.3.1 Common Reporting and Success Probabilities (White 1993);264
12.3.2;6.3.2 Unique Reporting and Success Probabilities ;269
12.4;6.4 Direct Estimation of Harvest Mortality;274
12.5;6.5 Estimating Harvest Mortality from Sex Ratios;275
12.6;6.6 Change-in-Ratio Methods;278
12.6.1;6.6.1 Two-Sample Change-in-Ratio Methods (Paulik and Robson 1969);278
12.6.2;6.6.2 Three-Sample Change-in-Ratio Method (Selleck and Hart 1957);282
12.7;6.7 Index-Removal Method: Petrides (1949) and Eberhardt (1982) ;288
12.8;6.8 Catch-Effort Methods;292
12.8.1;6.8.1 Successive Sex Ratios: Paloheimo and Fraser (1981);292
12.8.2;6.8.2 Age-at-Harvest Data: Paloheimo and Fraser (1981), Harris and Metzgar (1987);297
12.9;6.9 Proportion of Mortality Owing to Harvest (Gulland 1955);302
12.10;6.10 Summary;305
13;7 Estimating the Rate of Population Change;308
13.1;7.1 Introduction ;308
13.2;7.2 Basic Concepts and Definitions;310
13.3;7.3 Two-Sample Methods for Estimating r and .;313
13.4;7.4 Exponential-Growth Models;316
13.4.1;7.4.1 Nonlinear Regression for Estimating r or .;316
13.4.2;7.4.2 Log-Linear Regression for Estimating r;320
13.4.3;7.4.3 Ratio Estimators for .;322
13.4.4;7.4.4 Time-Series Analysis of .;325
13.5;7.5 Logistic-Growth Models;333
13.6;7.6 Growth Models with Removals;341
13.6.1;7.6.1 Exponential-Growth Models;341
13.6.2;7.6.2 Accounting for Missing Abundance Values;344
13.6.3;7.6.3 Logistic-Growth Models;345
13.7;7.7 Productivity-Based Estimator of . (Kelker 1947);347
13.8;7.8 Estimating . Using the Lotka Equation (Cole 1954) ;349
13.8.1;7.8.1 General Expression;349
13.8.2;7.8.2 Evaluation of Average Fecundity (Henny et al. 1970) ;354
13.8.3;7.8.3 Special Case: Two Age Classes (Henny et al. 1970, Cowardin and Johnson 1979);357
13.8.4;7.8.4 Special Case: Two Age Classes with Harvest;359
13.8.5;7.8.5 Special Case: Three Age Classes;359
13.8.6;7.8.6 Special Case: Four Age Classes;362
13.8.7;7.8.7 General Case ;363
13.9;7.9 Estimating . from a Leslie Matrix (Bernardelli 1941, Leslie 1945, 1948);364
13.10;7.10 Summary;374
14;8 Analysis of Population Indices;378
14.1;8.1 Introduction ;378
14.1.1;8.1.1 Relationship between Indices and Abundance;380
14.1.2;8.1.2 Basic Sampling Methods;381
14.2;8.2 Description of Common Indices;393
14.2.1;8.2.1 Pellet Counts;394
14.2.2;8.2.2 Frequency Index ;397
14.2.3;8.2.3 Auditory Counts ;400
14.2.4;8.2.4 Visual Counts ;404
14.2.5;8.2.5 Catch-per-Unit Effort ;408
14.2.6;8.2.6 Trap-Line Counts;412
14.2.7;8.2.7 Mark-Recapture Estimates as Indices;413
14.3;8.3 Design of Index Studies;414
14.3.1;8.3.1 Latin-Square Designs;415
14.3.2;8.3.2 Randomized Block Designs ;419
14.4;8.4 Calibration of Indices;422
14.4.1;8.4.1 Index-Removal Method: Petrides (1949) and Eberhardt (1982);422
14.4.2;8.4.2 Intercalibrating Two Indices ;425
14.4.3;8.4.3 Ratio Estimators ;426
14.4.4;8.4.4 Regression Estimators;428
14.4.5;8.4.5 Double Sampling for Ratios;432
14.4.6;8.4.6 Double Sampling for Regression;436
14.5;8.5 Analysis of Index Studies;441
14.5.1;8.5.1 Example: Forest Birds, New South Wales, Australia;442
14.5.2;8.5.2 Example: Deer Trail Counts, Wisconsin;445
14.5.3;8.5.3 Example: Dall Sheep (Ovis dalli) Aerial Counts, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska;447
14.5.4;8.5.4 Example: White-Tailed Deer Pellet Counts, George Reserve, Michigan;449
14.6;8.6 Summary;451
15;9 Estimating Population Abundance;454
15.1;9.1 Introduction;455
15.2;9.2 Visual Surveys;455
15.2.1;9.2.1 Strip Transects;456
15.2.2;9.2.2 Bounded Counts: Robson and Whitlock (1964), Regier and Robson (1967);459
15.2.3;9.2.3 Binomial Method-of-Moments (Overton 1969);460
15.2.4;9.2.4 Sightability Models ;463
15.2.5;9.2.5 Sight-Resight Method;470
15.3;9.3 Line Transects;474
15.3.1;9.3.1 Fixed-Distance Methods;475
15.3.2;9.3.2 Right-Angle Distance Methods;480
15.4;9.4 Index-Removal Method (Petrides 1949, Eberhardt 1982);484
15.5;9.5 Change-in-Ratio Methods ;485
15.5.1;9.5.1 Two-Class Model;486
15.5.2;9.5.2 Three or More Classes;490
15.5.3;9.5.3 Sequential Change-in-Ratio ;492
15.6;9.6 Catch-Effort Methods;494
15.6.1;9.6.1 Maximum Likelihood Model;495
15.6.2;9.6.2 Leslie and Davis (1939) Method;498
15.6.3;9.6.3 DeLury (1947, 1951) Method;501
15.6.4;9.6.4 Constant Effort Removal Technique (Zippin 1956, 1958);505
15.7;9.7 Life-History Models;515
15.7.1;9.7.1 Sex-Age-Kill Model ;516
15.7.2;9.7.2 SAK-MLE Model ;521
15.7.3;9.7.3 Duck Nest Survey Model;526
15.8;9.8 Age-Structured Population Reconstruction Methods ;528
15.8.1;9.8.1 Virtual Population Analysis (Fry 1949, 1957);530
15.8.2;9.8.2 Virtual Population Analysis (Gulland 1965);535
15.8.3;9.8.3 Cohort Analysis (Pope 1972);541
15.8.4;9.8.4 Discrete-Time Virtual Population Analysis (Fryxell et al. 1988);545
15.8.5;9.8.5 Statistical Age-at-Harvest Analysis (Gove et al. 2002) ;547
15.9;9.9 Summary;556
16;10 Integration of Analytical Techniques;560
16.1;10.1 Introduction and Purpose;560
16.2;10.2 Management for Desired Sex Ratios of Elk;561
16.3;10.3 Combining Field Results with Leslie Matrix Projections;566
16.4;10.4 Comparing and Combining Time- and Cohort-Specific Survival ;570
16.5;10.5 A Bighorn Sheep Life-History-Based Abundance Estimator;574
16.6;10.6 Partitioning Harvest and Natural Mortality ;579
16.7;10.7 Ring-Necked Pheasant Multisurvey Study;581
17;Appendix A: Statistical Concepts and Theory;584
18;Appendix B: Glossary of Symbols ;594
19;Appendix C: Program USER;598
20;Appendix D: Mathematica Code for Calculating the Variance of the Finite Rate of Population Change, Var(.), from a Matrix Population Model;610
21;References ;618
22;Index;648