Decision-makers at all levels are being confronted with novel complexities and uncertainties and face long-term challenges which require foresight about long-term future prospects, assumptions, and strategies. This book explores how foresight studies can be systematically undertaken and used in this context. It explicates why and how methods like horizon scanning, scenario planning, and roadmapping should be applied when dealing with high levels of uncertainty. The scope of the book moves beyond “narrow” technology foresight, towards addressing systemic interrelations between social, technological, economic, environmental, and political systems. Applications of foresight tools to such fields as energy, cities, health, transportation, education, and sustainability are considered as well as enabling technologies including nano-, bio-, and information technologies and cognitive sciences. The approaches will be illustrated with specific actual cases.
Miles / Saritas / Sokolov
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Zielgruppe
Professional/practitioner
Weitere Infos & Material
1 Introduction.- 2 Foresight for STI - What and Why.- 3 Initiation-Scoping and Managing ForSTI.- 4 Interaction - Participation and Recruitment.- 5 Intelligence - Environmental and Horizon Scanning.- 6 Intelligence - Delphi.- 7 Imagination - Scenarios and Alternative Futures.- 8 Integration - Modelling.- 9 From Integration to Interpretation - Translating ForSTI into Strategies.- 10 Intervention and Impact - Outcomes, Action and Evaluation.- 11 Conclusion.
Ian Miles is Head of the Laboratory of Economics of Innovation at Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University - Higher School of Economics (HSE), Moscow, and Professor of Technological Innovation and Social Change at Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR), Manchester Business School. He graduated in Psychology from the University of Manchester and received a higher Doctorate in Social Science from the same University. He previously worked at the Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex. His research includes studies of service innovation and knowledge-intensive business services, Foresight and futures studies, information technology innovation and social indicators. He has published 12 authored books, 12 edited books, 100 journal articles and over 200 reports and book chapters.
